Iran plays Russian Roulette

Iran is playing Russian roulette and the hammer is about to fall on a loaded chamber.

The wheels of war have started in motion and they are of such power and complexity in the U.S. that they are near impossible to stop. Iran, it is reported today, is now under U.S. covert attack with top level Iranian military commanders disappearing or being killed. The U.S. is preparing the way for hammer blow attack on Iran. This war will be different.

Iran has been amply warned by just about anyone who they would listen to - China, Russia, France and the US - of the need to comply to international concerns over their nuclear program. America may be criticized for many things but you can never say the Uncle Sam doesn't give notice of intent to wage war.

Sadaam learned this the hard way. He too was given lots of warnings and he laughed them off. More warnings, pleas, sanctions – same response. And then Hell came to visit: twice.

An attack on Iran will be of a higher level of devastation than the two unleashed on Iraq. The attack will have to be overwhelming, with the element of surprise and the majority of targets attacked will have to be destroyed simultaneously because of the very real counter-threat.

Iran is equipped with a plethora of anti-ship missiles – French Exocet and Chinese Silkworms - all aimed at the large oil tankers that contain our next tank of gas. The tankers are particularly vulnerable to attack as they pass through the Straights of Hormuz, a 21 mile wide channel where 20% of the world’s oil leaves the Gulf.

The Iranians are also equipped with intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of hitting anywhere in the Middle East and Europe. That’s right - I said Europe. We’re not talking about your Sadaam-era porta-Scuds here. These are the real McCoy developed with the North Koreans and have a minimum range of 1,200 miles. Iran cannot be allowed to light off even one of these as it will bring immediate, far-reaching and terrible consequences.

What might the consequences be?

Most certainly there will be a nuclear response. Last year France gave Iran an unequivocal warning that they would nuke them in the event that France felt it was under attack. I can't imagine the rest of Europe feels any way differently. And then there’s Israel.

Israel will respond to the first wisp of smoke, the first splutter of flame, from those missiles. Why? Because Israel - and the world - has no idea what the intended target is or what the payload consists of: conventional explosives, chemical weapons or nuclear in the form of bits and bobs (dirty bomb) or the whole enchilada? Nobody, anywhere, wants to wake up and find that their back yard will be uninhabitable for the next 30,000 years because they didn't react quickly enough to an Iranian missle. Any sign of a missile attack on Israel will set off a nuclear response from Israel.

Iran has a substantial air force that provides a threat similar if delivered a smidge more leisurely than the missiles. Same reaction should they near Iraq, Afghanistan or go out to threaten Gulf shipping. As you read this, be aware that all of the nukes in Europe, Israel and even Russia have been wound up, fully fueled and targeted.

This war could be the one where nukes are not the deterrent or the side-show. They could be the main attraction.